Starting price earnings ratio of Zhejiang: Hangzhou buy a housea 20year struggle
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Yesterday, the real estate industry by the Zhejiang Association of Real Estate Research Center, Zhejiang University, jointly issued the "2010 Report of the first half of real estate development in Zhejiang Province" (hereinafter referred to as the White Paper) freshly baked. White Paper on the province's first release in 11 cities above the prefectural level market research, estimated that the price earnings ratio, price rent ratio (ie rental ratio), the rent income than the three basic indicators.
Data show, Wenzhou, Hangzhou, Lishui, Ningbo price is relatively high income, working families purchase difficult; Wenzhou, Jinhua, Quzhou and Lishui and Hangzhou, far more than than the international warning line rental. White Paper proposals, the province around the city as differences in economic development and market reasons, the real estate market also showed significant differences, need to consider the difference of the investment decision-making and policy initiatives.
Wenzhou, Hangzhou, buy a house, a family of three to 20 years of struggle
Price earnings ratio is a reflection of the financial burden of residents purchase indicators. White paper released the 2009 statistics the city urban per capita disposable income multiplied by 3 for family income, urban areas with the first half of the average transaction price of real estate to buy a set of 90 multiplied by 90 square meters of residential, said the total price, the total price divided by annual household income derived price earnings ratio, that is, the average urban income families to buy a set of 90 square meters of residential needs of the number of years.
From the measured results, the province's 11 prefecture-level cities have price earnings ratio of 8 or more, Wenzhou and Hangzhou, which were the highest, 27.8,21.2, which means Wenzhou, a family of three working families, food or drink needs nearly 28 years to afford a house of 90 square meters; and Hangzhou also need more than 21 years. If you planing to live normal expenses, according to the data, the two regions to buy a house the average family, I am afraid to spend my life time.
In addition to these two cities, Ningbo, Lishui, and also ranks in the forefront, the White Paper analysis that housing prices in these cities, probably with a strong investment on housing demand, the market sensitivity and volatility of the policy will be stronger.
Rental ratio far exceeds the warning level, in fact, a large investment risk
Rent ratio is a reflection of the housing market and the trading relationship between the housing rental market index, usually used to measure the degree of market bubble and the return on investment. White Paper with the first half of 2010 real estate transaction price of the urban area, urban areas divided by the average of June 2010 the level of housing rent, the rent price ratio index obtained.
According to international experience, in a mature market economy, the rental is reasonable ratio between 200 to 300. However, 11 cities in Zhejiang Province rent ratio, all in 300 or more, Wenzhou has reached 720, meaning that, buy a house, need 60 years to recover the purchase cost, far more than the warning line. Hangzhou has reached 564, almost 47 years needed to recover costs.
From the data point of view, Wenzhou, Jinhua, Quzhou and Lishui and Hangzhou prices have more than 500 more than the rent and other basic urban 400 to 500. White Paper analysis, in the current level of deposit and lending rates, if the purchase of its own funds or cost-effective, but if the mortgage loans to home buyers, house prices can not continue to rise in the circumstances, will face the risk of investment losses.
Rent income is not high, the pressure also line rental
Rent income, reflecting the city housing rent levels and the relationship between household income, measured by the rent burden. White Paper by the city in June 2010 multiplied by the average rent level of housing 60, said the lease on a 60 square meters of housing rent levels; with the city released the 2009 level of urban per capita disposable income multiplied by three, divided by the 12, that the monthly income of a family of three levels. The former divided by the latter is the case in the rental, home rent expense ratio of total household income.
According to international experience, the general household housing consumption expenditure less than 25% of their income is reasonable, 30% or less is affordable. Data show that the province's rental income in the normal range than the basic, the highest 30% of Hangzhou. The lowest Jinhua, only 10.3%. From this data, if the families meet their basic living by leasing consumer needs, is economically feasible. White Paper of the Government in the housing security aspects of the scale and intensity of pressure is not to focus on the purchase of housing prices has brought difficulties to prevent the resulting various structural contradictions and problems.
